The core consumer price index, a key measure of inflation watched closely by the Federal Reserve, jumped to 3.1% in July, marking the largest gain in six months as companies grapple with President Donald Trump’s trade war.

With inflation easing and the labor market cooling, the risks of keeping policy too tight are mounting. The CME Group now puts the implied odds of a September rate cut at 92.2 percent, reflecting growing expectations in the fed funds futures market that the Fed will respond to the softer data.

The Labor Department’s consumer price index for July showed that the annual pace of inflation remained at 2.7 percent from July 2024. That’s the same as the annual rise reported in June and above April’s post-pandemic low of 2.3 percent, though it was just under economists’ expectations.